How to watch Sweden’s election like a pro

STOCKHOLM — Millions of Swedes will vote in a tense general election on Sunday that is set to deliver a new left-wing government or bring far-right ministers into power for the first time. The Social Democrat-led left bloc enjoyed a comfortable lead for months but polls tightened significantly in the final two weeks of the campaign, with one 11th-hour survey suggesting a dead heat. “Two or three weeks ago, we were saying this is a done deal,” said Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder, who is running results forecasts for Sweden’s public broadcaster SVT on election night. “Now it seems that it will be a more exciting night than expected.” The vote will have potentially significant consequences for security in Europe and the wider debate over integrating the far right into mainstream politics. Here is POLITICO’s guide to the contest, the candidates and the countdown to declaring a winner. How does the election work? There are 349 seats in the Riksdag, Sweden’s parliament, which is located in an imposing waterside building on an island in central Stockholm. The country chooses its lawmakers every four years using a proportional representation voting system, meaning that if a party gets about 20% of the votes across Sweden, it will have about 20% of the seats in the Riksdag. Coalitions are the norm. But there’s a catch: Very small parties are eliminated and get no seats at all if they do not meet the minimum threshold for support of 4% of the national vote. This could be a vital element in a closely fought contest, when the smaller parties may hold the balance of power. Nearly 8 million people are registered to vote and turnout tends to be high — more than 80%. This year, a record number of people are expected to have cast their ballots early, which they’ve been able to do since Aug. 26. If they change their minds, these early voters can vote again on Sunday, canceling their original choices. Regional and local elections take place at the same time. Who gets to govern? After the last contest in 2022, eight parties were elected to parliament and they have been fighting this summer’s campaign in two blocs — one on the left and one on the right. That means there are only two realistic candidates to be prime minister: the incumbent, conservative Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson; and Magdalena Andersson, the former PM who leads Sweden’s biggest party, the center-left Social Democrats. Swedish Prime Minister and Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson speaks to the media upon arrival to a televised election debate hosted by TV4 in Stockholm, Sweden, on September 10, 2026, three days ahead of the country’s general election. | Jonathan Nackstrand/ AFP via Getty Images Kristersson has run the right-wing coalition for the past four years thanks to influential support from the second biggest party, the far-right Sweden Democrats. They backed him in votes in parliament and drove policy in a hardline direction, including crackdowns on crime and especially immigration. But the Sweden Democrats did not join the coalition cabinet. That could now change. Can the far right enter the government? Kristersson divided opinion in 2022 when he broke a decades-long taboo against working with the far right and did his deal with the Sweden Democrats, who had won 20% of the vote. The SD was founded in the 1980s and some members in those days had roots in neo-Nazi movements. The party has taken steps to clean up its act in recent years, though not to everyone’s satisfaction. Now Kristersson says he will give the SD ministerial seats in government if his side wins on Sunday, as part of an agreement with the far-right leader, Jimmie Åkesson. That would be another huge step for Sweden and one that the opposition has seized on. “Of course this would be a different country with a government with half of the ministers from the Sweden Democrats,” opposition leader Andersson told AP recently. “It would not be good for Sweden if they would get the keys to the min