How did von der Leyen’s ‘independence moment’ hold up over 12 months?

Ursula von der Leyen used her set piece speech last year to declare Europe’s “independence moment.” Twelve months later, the European Commission president’s record shows the EU’s independence still very much depends on its national capitals. One year after her last State of the Union address, von der Leyen has delivered most clearly where the Commission could act largely on its own: writing laws and funding initiatives on core topics like tech, trade and social policy. She struggled most where success required member countries to agree, surrender more control to Brussels or build genuinely new European capabilities — particularly on defense. “The issue of defense plays a completely different role in Europe than it did just two years ago,” said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the liberal chair of the European Parliament’s security and defense committee, pointing to a series of “very valuable programs” launched over the past year. But, she added, “all efforts are reaching their limits, because national self-interest continues to play a major role.” That tension runs through POLITICO’s assessment of the promises in von der Leyen’s last State of the Union address. Of more than 40 announcements — broadly defined as commitments that could plausibly be turned into action — roughly 15 politically significant commitments stand out. Von der Leyen framed promises including a drone wall, an India trade deal and an affordable housing plan as part of a wider push for European sovereignty. Where von der Leyen struggled was with the promises that were supposed to change what Europe actually is and create its supposed “independence moment.” Those were the promises that made last year’s speech feel bigger than a normal Commission work program. And those are the areas where the gap between ambition and reality remains widest. Clearest misses Few lines from last year’s speech were more memorable than von der Leyen’s promise to build a “drone wall.” The idea was presented as a jointly developed, real-time European capability to detect and counter aerial threats. The concept quickly ran into political resistance at the informal European Council meeting in Copenhagen on Oct. 1, and evolved into a broader counter-drone action plan. The integrated European capability as originally advertised did not materialize within the year. The second major miss was von der Leyen’s plan to use immobilized Russian assets to fund a reparations loan for Ukraine. “The issue of defense plays a completely different role in Europe than it did just two years ago,” said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. | I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images It was one of the most creative financing ideas put forward by the EU. It also ran straight into legal and political problems. By December 2025, EU leaders were still asking officials to keep working on the technical details. In the end, Europe agreed on a €90 billion Ukraine loan with more conventional financing through EU borrowing and backed by the EU budget. Then there was the European Defence Semester. The name itself was ambitious: regular EU-level scrutiny and coordination of national defense efforts, echoing the European Semester used to grade capitals’ economic policy. That concept never really took shape. What emerged was closer to an annual defense-readiness reporting and coordination exercise, leaving member countries with considerably more control. Clearest success The performance improves once you move away from the Europe von der Leyen described as “in a fight” and toward its traditional peace project ambitions — things the Commission can directly propose or organize. Her trade goals represent a virtual clean sweep. The Commission followed through on its diversification agenda, including negotiations with India — the deal arrived slightly later than von der Leyen had promised, but the substance was delivered. The Mercosur trade deal with Latin America also provisionally entered int