Germany’s hot topic this summer: A chancellor swap

BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz doesn’t seem to think his job will be in danger when he gets back from his summer holiday. “I’m assuming that things will have calmed down a bit by September,” he said last week, after internal dissent over his handling of a cabinet reshuffle boiled over. He may be underestimating the pressure building within his own party. Ahead of crucial regional elections in September — in which the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a realistic chance of taking power in a German state for the first time — there is increasingly open discussion of a Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap, in the fall. Public criticism has mainly come from those ousted from government in the reshuffle. But behind the scenes, a growing number of politicians from Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are discussing what would, by German standards, be a remarkable scenario: replacing the leader after little more than a year in the job. Europe’s biggest economy has long been one of its most stable democracies, with no history of rattling through leaders like postwar Italy or post-Brexit Britain. But the expected success of the AfD, in elections in which the CDU is expected to lose ground, is upending the country’s conventional political dynamics. The theory behind a Kanzlertausch is that the conservatives will need to stem the fallout from the eastern elections and give themselves a boost by replacing a leader unable to shake his rock-bottom ratings. But the stakes are high. The AfD — now the most popular party in national polls — would seek to capitalize on further coalition unrest. Replacing a chancellor years before the end of his term would mean venturing into largely uncharted political territory. Only three sitting chancellors have been succeeded by a politician from the same political camp in postwar Germany: in 1963, when the 87-year-old Konrad Adenauer resigned to make way for Ludwig Erhard; in 1966, after Erhard’s coalition collapsed; and in 1974, when Social Democrat Willy Brandt stood down over an espionage scandal. The current Kanzlertausch scenario — in which Hendrik Wüst, the premier of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, has emerged as Merz’s most likely successor — has been widely discussed in German media, including in the latest Der Spiegel cover story headlined “Palace Revolt.” Conservative politicians confirmed the internal debate to POLITICO, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the discussions. The AfD — now the most popular party in national polls — would seek to capitalize on further coalition unrest. | John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images The growing discontent, they said, reflected declining trust in the chancellor’s statesmanship and his expected inability to keep the party together if the AfD takes power in September. Polls show that the AfD could win an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, while it is poised to win in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania and do well in Berlin on Sept. 20. A further fear is that individual CDU politicians in eastern Germany might lend their support to an AfD-led state government after the elections — breaking Merz’s long-standing pledge never to allow the far right into government. One called the debate “speculative” for now and said that the aftermath of the elections in eastern Germany would be “decisive” for the chancellor’s future. They also stressed that, for now, no senior figure has publicly spoken out against Merz. Yet the mounting unease is conspicuous in a party usually known for its discipline. Keeping a cool head If Merz were forced to go, that would seriously disrupt Germany’s consensus-based political system. The move would come less than two years after the previous center-left coalition fell apart and could trigger a snap election. Kai Arzheimer, a political science professor at the University of Mainz, said the fragmentation of Germany’s party system — where centrist parties must for