What’s bad for Trump is good for Le Pen

What’s bad for Trump is good for Le Pen Anger at the rising cost of living spells danger for incumbents everywhere. By MARION SOLLETTYin Paris Photo-illustration by Gibson Kochanek for POLITICO Beware the angry voter. That’s the message Europeans are taking from the crushing defeat suffered by Donald Trump’s Republicans in the U.S. midterm election. The fury over the cost of living that helped propel the U.S. president to power has now turned against him. And with elections looming in heavyweight EU countries like Spain, Italy, France, Greece and Poland, Trump’s fate is a warning for incumbents across the continent. Growing anger over rising prices and unaffordable housing is likely to spell trouble for Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has already faced waves of protests over the cost of fuel. The blowback in the U.S. shows what happens when right-wing populist leaders take charge and then don’t deliver on their promises, said Irene Tinagli, an Italian member of the European Parliament from the opposition Democratic Party. “Trump came up with the promise of lowering the cost of living. He was attacking the previous administration for the inflation. He promised to bring back quality jobs,” Tinagli said. “This didn’t happen.” Surveys show voters focused on economic concerns, said Mathieu Gallard, research director at polling firm Ipsos. Demonstrators protest against rising housing prices in Barcelona on Oct. 5, 2026. | Manaure Quintero/AFP via Getty Images In Spain, affordability is already a major issue in the campaign for an election scheduled for Nov. 29. Most polls predict the far-right Vox party, which has been accusing Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of failing to meet citizens’ basic needs, will gain enough seats to enter into government for the first time as a coalition partner to the conservative People’s Party. Whatever their political stripes, incumbents are vulnerable, Gallard said. “The far-right or radical right [leaders], when they arrive in power, find themselves in the same situation as traditional parties and have the same difficulties,” he added, pointing to this year’s defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and a sharp drop in support for the far-right Sweden Democrats. For insurgents like France’s Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally party, however, voter discontent offers opportunity. The cost of living “will be the major issue in the campaign,” said Alexandre Loubet, a lawmaker for the National Rally and a key architect of Le Pen’s economic platform. “The advantage [for us] is that we are very consistent on this issue. It’s a bit like immigration — we are already in people’s minds on these subjects.” Le Pen, who is the frontrunner in next spring’s presidential race, has long made cost-of-living a central issue for her platform and is capitalizing on the government’s current economic and fiscal woes. The blocked entrance of the Saint-Sernin high school in Toulouse on Nov.2, 2026. | Matthieu Rondel/AFP via Getty Images She made affordable housing a central theme in her first campaign appearance and has doubled down on her promises to shield pensioners from upcoming budget squeezes. The far-right veteran is also campaigning on lowering energy taxes, brushing aside criticism that her proposals are unaffordable. At her party congress last week, Le Pen pushed a message of change and hope, adopting her rival President Emmanuel Macron’s catchword, “Renaissance,” as her campaign motto. The positive tone “was intentional,” said Loubet. “There’s a sense of gloom in the country. We need to offer a little hope, a vision, a direction.” The recent protest movements that have swept Spain, France, Italy and, to a lesser extent, Germany, have centered around complaints about the cost of living, especially for the young. They echo anger in the U.S., where polls showed young Americans felt their eco