America’s reassurance mission at Farnborough

The people, policies, and power shifts shaping today’s international security landscape. By JACK DETSCH Send ideas here | @JackDetsch | View in your browser OI THERE MATES, AND WELCOME TO GLOBAL SECURITY. After another big day of travel — and a few golf cart rides — we’re coming to you from the Farnborough Air Show just outside of London. Stop by and say hi. We’re digging into the new questions from Europe about America’s role in the continent’s rearmament, the U.K.’s banner year for aircraft sales, and how U.S. industry is pushing back on E.U. defense rules. Read more about our mission. We’ll publish daily for free during major industry events but our otherwise weekly newsletter is behind the paywall for U.S. and EU Pro subscribers. What will be the biggest defense deal inked at Farnborough? Email jdetsch@politico.com with tips, pitches and feedback, and follow along on X at @JackDetsch. Europe’s biggest airshow of the year is set to open this week under the specter of two wars, with the Pentagon facing doubts it can hit a trillion-dollar budget topline and if it will play nice with NATO nations increasingly confident about going it alone. The show that spans more than five million square feet — enough to fit 78 football pitches or 1,350 Concordes stacked wing to wing — has been running since the end of World War II and will launch tens of billions of dollars worth of deals. But with the U.S. delaying arms sales and hanging onto more weapons, the feeling is in the air that American credibility — especially their ability to clarify what they want from Europe and to meet demand — is on the line here at Farnborough. “There’s no question that the primary subtext to this air show, last year’s air show, I’m sure next year’s air show, is going to be the geopolitical issues and the transatlantic issue in particular, and a lot of anxiety about what that means on both sides,” said a U.S. industry official. “Europe is far from a monolith. You have European countries that would absolutely like to push full on the gas to build an organic defense industrial base. You have others that are very clear they want to continue to buy American kit.” “We still argue that we make the best stuff in the world, and everybody wants it,” added the official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But the Europeans are worried if they can get it.” Scar tissue: Even as top European officials acknowledge they will need America’s help rearming, some are chafing at the Trump administration’s suggestions that the continent shouldn’t try to replace the U.S. defense industry’s role — even as the Pentagon is signaling that it is removing some U.S. forces from Europe. “The U.S. is moving the goalpost while demanding Europe take ‘primary responsibility’ for its own defense while opposing the industrial-policy tools to do it,” said Oscar Jonsson, a specialist from the Swedish Defence University. “Most European states figured that buying American won’t reverse the trend of U.S. withdrawal, and it will only prolong an overdependence on the U.S. It’s not unlikely that there will be a compromise with some more buying American, but it’s only a slight delay to the structural shift.” And just as American defense contractors aren’t getting clear signals from the Pentagon, the Europeans say they’re not getting much clarity on what the Americans want, either. “At times it’s almost schizophrenic,” said a European official. “One U.S. government department informs the allies that they won’t receive even the equipment they may have ordered and paid for anytime soon, while the other department is pushing allies to buy more U.S. equipment.” Reassurance mission: The Trump administration and Congress are keen to keep up the momentum that saw U.S. arms exports surge by 27 percent over the past five years. And a big contingent is here to plead the case. Congress is showing up in force, with an 11-member House and Senate delegation