Friedrich Merz will lose Sunday’s regional election — whatever the result

MAGDEBURG, Germany — For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Sunday’s election in eastern Germany offers no good outcomes — only varying degrees of political humiliation. The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is expected to win decisively in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, finishing well ahead of Merz’s conservatives, according to pre-election polls. This result would show, in the clearest terms, the degree to which the far right has strengthened and surpassed mainstream parties in broad swaths of the country. That humiliation would be even worse for Merz if the AfD wins enough votes to secure an outright parliamentary majority and govern the state alone. At least from the perspective of Germany’s mainstream parties, it would give him an ignominious place in the country’s postwar history as the national leader who presided over the far-right’s first rise to real governing power since World War II. But the other likely outcomes offer little relief for Merz. If the AfD falls short of a governing majority in the state — an outcome that appears increasingly likely based on the latest polling — Merz’s second-place Christian Democratic Union will face a series of untenable choices as it tries to cobble together a coalition with left-wing parties. Any such alliance would likely be doomed from the outset, while remaining dependent on far-left or far-right support to pass legislation. Concerns are also mounting that the AfD may be preparing for this scenario by challenging the outcome of Sunday’s election. The party has already issued press releases casting doubt on mail-in ballots, while its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has voiced similar concerns on social media. Whatever the result on Sunday, the election could set off a chain of events for Merz — already a historically weak leader — that could ultimately lead to his downfall, and it’s unclear whether the chancellor has a coherent strategy for dealing with the fallout. In the lead-up to the vote, Merz almost seemed to be in a state of denial. “I’m not speculating today about what will happen the day after [the election],” Merz said in a television interview last Sunday. “We’ll assess the situation in light of the election results, and we’ll do everything we can to prevent Saxony-Anhalt from falling into the hands of the radicals.” Billboards and election posters featuring election campaign ads for various parties are pictured in Magdeburg. | Ronny Hartmann/AFP via Getty Images But the chancellor comes into the election in Saxony-Anhalt — and two more elections on Sept. 20 — in a precarious position. Already the least popular chancellor on record after 16 months in office, Merz’s fellow conservatives have been quietly debating what would be a remarkable scenario by German standards: replacing the chancellor — a so-called Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap. “Given the dissatisfaction, the poll numbers and the fact that there are additional elections coming up next year … the pressure for fundamental change will naturally increase,” said Julian Schache, a CDU politician from Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt’s capital. “I could certainly imagine that some will push for Friedrich Merz to step down. But whether that’s the solution remains to be seen. Already, conservative politicians in eastern Germany don’t want Merz on the campaign trail. In the rare appearances he’s made in the region earlier, he was booed. Angry voters yelled “Pinocchio” and “warmongerer” during a visit this week, after which a planned press statement was canceled. Scenario 1 — AfD wins power If the AfD can win enough votes to govern alone in Saxony-Anhalt, it would in some respects be a simpler, easier outcome for Merz’s conservatives. Some CDU politicians in the state see notable advantages that would give conservatives the benefit of what the AfD has long enjoyed — the ability to attack the government from the comfort of the opposition bench. Conservatives believe an AfD stint in government c