Germany’s far-right moment hastens EU’s push for €2T budget deal

BRUSSELS — The prospect of the far right running a German state for the first time since 1945 will provide the clearest warning yet to EU governments about the urgency of striking a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget. Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt is giving European diplomats cause to sound the alarm over how disagreements between countries will only get worse next year. With 2027 set to see votes in France, Spain, Italy, Poland, Greece, Estonia and Slovakia, the prospect of other Euroskeptic voices sweeping to power — with a mandate to make the EU less expensive and less powerful — is focusing minds on getting a deal on the budget before the end of the year, four diplomats and officials told POLITICO. With its mix of nationalism and anti-migration rhetoric, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on course to be within a few seats of winning an absolute parliamentary majority in the east German state on Sunday. While that won’t directly change the country’s national leadership, votes in other countries next year might. “With four of the five largest EU member states voting in parliamentary or presidential elections, it will be more difficult to reach an agreement, especially if we look at the rise of anti-European populism,” said Siegfried Mureșan, the Parliament’s lead lawmaker on the budget. “Everyone understands the obvious negative consequences of a delayed adoption and entry into force of the MFF [the Multiannual Financial Framework, the seven-year budget].” Negotiations on the budget — which must be agreed by all 27 governments — have been deadlocked for months. Neither of the two main groups of countries, those that want the EU to have more to spend and those that want it to have less, has seen an advantage in giving ground so far. European Council President António Costa is currently touring capitals in an effort to narrow differences. “Saxony-Anhalt could really define the fall,” said one of those diplomats involved in the talks. “It will make it clear that it is crucial to get agreement this year. If we don’t get it in December, it can’t be February or March, that will be too close to the French election.” Ulrich Siegmund, lead candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), attends an AfD-sponsored outing of Simson motorcycle enthusiasts ahead of upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on July 26, 2026 in Weissenfels, Germany. The AfD is currently leading in polls in state elections scheduled for September 6 by such a wide margin that it could possibly hold a majority in the state parliament. | Jens Schlueter/Getty Images Brussels is spooked by the prospect of France’s far-right veteran Marine Le Pen winning the country’s presidential election, scheduled to start on April 18, and following through on her campaign pledge to halve France’s contribution to the EU budget, the diplomats and EU officials said. Macron’s challenge But while at the European level that adds urgency for France to get a deal before the election, domestic pressures make it more complicated.Macron, whose far-right opponents are pushing for massive reductions in the country’s own EU contributions, is under pressure to get a deal that won’t worsen Paris’ national economic woes. He is pushing for new EU-wide taxes, known as “own resources,” as a way to pay for the bloc’s priorities without capitals being stuck with the bill themselves. France wants to give Brussels the power to put levies on U.S. digital giants, foreign polluters and online gambling. “Any agreement without own resources will be a no-go for France,” said an EU official. “We get it.” The disagreements got another airing at a meeting of European ministers which kicked off on Thursday in Ireland, which holds the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Germany is leading a group of countries that want the EU budget to be smaller than that pr